Model odds at settlement

Waiting for prices

Above–

Below–

Fair price – Above · – Below

The outlined bracket shows the odds if volatility runs 20% lower or 25% higher.

Target

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Waiting for data

BTC now

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Connecting to exchanges

Gap to target

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Typical move left

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This window

BTC Target Likely range by close Averaging minutes

Odds of Above through the window: model vs Kalshi

Settlement minute

Not started

–one bar per second–

The result is the average of 60 one-second index prices in the last minute, compared with the same average from the minute before the window opened. Ties count as Above.

Average so far: –
Needed from here: –
Projected average: –

Trend and flow

Context, not in the odds

The odds assume no trend. These readings show what is pushing price right now. Over 15 minutes they predict little on their own; check the history panel before leaning on them.

Kalshi market

Connecting…

Target–

Buy Above–

Buy Below–

AboveWaiting for odds–

BelowWaiting for odds–

Right column: expected profit per $1 contract at that price, after the fee.

Waiting for live odds.

Type your own numbers optional

Target leave empty to use Kalshi's

Price to buy Above, ¢

Price to buy Below, ¢

Typed numbers replace Kalshi's for this window only. Empty boxes use Kalshi's, shown in grey.

History check

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Similar setups

Waiting for history and live prices.

Recent windows

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How well the odds held up