Learning from Kalshi's history…
The first visit reads about two months of past windows. After that it takes a second.
This window
Waiting for pricesFair price – Above · – Below
The outlined bracket shows the odds if volatility runs 20% lower or 25% higher.
Price vs target
AI coach
WaitingThe coach sums up the call and the news here in plain English.
When to look
Waiting for history.
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Last setups
Average BTC move per window, by hour of the day
Big US releases coming up
- Loading the calendar…
Already holding a side?
Selling early gives up the spread and pays a fee. The setups on this page were scored holding to the end.
Best times to bet
What has paid on Kalshi's own prices, and when it shows up.
Bet map
Average profit per $1 contract after fees| Waiting for history… |
Each cell is one rule: in that part of the window, buy that side the first time it costs that much, and hold to the end. The outlined cell is where this window sits right now.
Time of day
Your time| Waiting for history… |
The setup that paid
Waiting for history.
When BTC moves most
Your timeMarket details
Kalshi's prices, the exchanges' order books and the indicators, live.
Kalshi market
Connecting…Right column: expected profit per $1 contract at that price after the fee, using our odds model.
Waiting for live odds.
Type your own numbers optional
Typed numbers replace Kalshi's for this window only.
Settlement minute
Not startedThe result is the average of 60 one-second index prices in the last minute, compared with the same average from the minute before the window opened. Ties count as Above.
- Average so far
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- Needed from here
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- Projected average
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Trend and flow
Context, not in the oddsThe odds assume no trend. These readings show what is pushing price right now; over 15 minutes they predict little on their own.
Order books
Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp, Gemini–
Bars: BTC offered (red) and bid (green) in each $25 step. Big orders can be pulled at any moment.
Kalshi book
Waiting for Kalshi.
RSI and MACD
1-minute bars, liveDid these signals beat Kalshi?
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Price feeds
Connecting…| Exchange | Mid | vs avg | Status |
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News and AI read
Crypto and market headlines, rated by an AI model, plus the US release calendar.
AI read
The AI read appears here once the news loads.
Scheduled US releases
High and medium impact- Loading the calendar…
Headlines
- Loading headlines…
From CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, Decrypt, The Block, CryptoSlate, Bitcoin Magazine, CNBC, MarketWatch and the Federal Reserve, refreshed every 2 minutes. The AI reads headlines, not full articles, and can be wrong; markets usually price news within seconds.
Track record
How our odds model has done against Kalshi's results and prices.
Model vs Kalshi's prices
Similar setups
Waiting for history and live prices.
Recent windows
How well our odds held up
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Settings and help
Saved on this device.
Settings
How this works
The call. Every second the page asks one question: does this moment match a betting rule that made money on Kalshi's own prices? It knows because it has read every 15-minute BTC window Kalshi still lists, about two months, with the price of each side at the end of every minute and the official result. Each rule is simple: in one part of the window (13 to 10, 9 to 5, or 4 to 1 minutes left), buy the favorite or the cheap side the first time it costs a certain amount, and hold to the end. A rule counts as paying only if it made money after Kalshi's fee overall, by more than luck would explain, and in both the first and second half of the period. The page says Buy only when a paying rule matches right now, Skip when the spot has lost money, and Wait otherwise. It re-checks every rule as new windows settle, so a setup that stops working drops out on its own.
What settles the market. Each window settles on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real Time Index: the average of the 60 one-second prices in the last minute, against the same average from the minute before the window opened. A tie counts as Above.
Our odds. The chance numbers come from a model that treats the next few minutes as a random walk, with volatility measured from the last hour and the last 15 minutes, and accounts for the averaging in the final minute. Kalshi's price has been a slightly better guide than this model, which is why the call relies on Kalshi's own track record instead. The Track record page shows the comparison.
The AI coach and news. A language model on the site's Cloudflare account reads crypto and market headlines every few minutes, rates them, and writes the coach note from the call, the history and the news. It explains; it does not change the call. High-impact US releases (CPI, jobs, Fed) inside a window turn the call to Skip, because they can move BTC hundreds of dollars in seconds.
Limits. Past results don't guarantee future ones, and the edges here are small: a few cents per dollar on bets that win most of the time but lose the whole stake when they don't. Fees are rounded up per order on Kalshi, which costs more on small orders. Prices on this page can lag Kalshi's by a second or two.
For information only, not financial advice. Only bet what you can afford to lose.